Ag Update [Northwestern Financial Review]
Farmers, many of whom are reliant on slowly rising milk prices, did not see significant farm income gains.But Midwestern farmers - and the community bankers who serve them -have long memories. Many wonder if today's good times represent a bubble, waiting to burst. They worry that current conditions too closely resemble the mid-1980s, when everything on the farm went down the tubes. Are today's good times a prelude to a new agriculture disaster? The short answer is probably "no." A look at why reveals the real challenges facing Midwestern farmers and their rural community banks.
Not the 1980s
Four factors of today's agricultural world make it quite different from that of the 1980s:
* Commodity prices are unlikely to plummet. In the 1980s, commodity prices buckled primarily due to export restrictions ( President Carter , for example) and over-production based on government subsidies. Today, government subsidies are at an all-time low, and high commodity prices are primarily based on steadily increasing global demand for food. World population recently hit 7 billion and is predicted to reach the 9 billion mark by 2050, so demand for food will almost certainly continue to rise, and commodity prices are likely to remain above a farmer-sustainable rate for years to come.
* Agricultural loans are now based on production capacity. The late 1970s and early 1980s agricultural loan market was much like the residential and commercial real estate market of the last decade. Loans were collateral-based, which meant that as land values rose, owners could borrow more. When it became clear that the price of most land did not reflect its production value, the market collapsed and landowners - most of them farmers - simply couldn't make their loan payments.
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Today, nearly all agricultural loans are issued on the basis of a producer's projected cash flow, which means that only devastatingly low prices and crop damage can impede repayment - and that's only if the producer isn't carrying adequate insurance.
It was not explicitly backed by the full faith and credit of the government, but investors quickly leaped to the conclusion that it was. That perception allowed Fannie Mae (and its smaller savings-and-loan counterpart Freddie Mac) to borrow money at a
The situation in Lake Elmo exemplifies how quickly matters can get complicated as efforts to rein in local government spending run counter to the service expectations of some residents. Cities and counties across the state are facing tight budgets
While payments have remained current, future cash flows to service all debt under this relationship are beginning to come into question. For the first nine months of 2011, provision for loan losses was $21.6 million compared to $23.6 million for the
It eventually moved away from retail auto sales to focus on buying loans issued by other Buy Here Pay Here lots. It was a shrewd move: Dealers proved eager to trade future revenue streams for cash upfront. Credit Acceptance tries to cherry-pick the
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