Prior Week: Two Drivers Of Italian Debt Sentiment Drive Markets
What was behind these moves?
FUNDAMENTAL PICTURE
EU: Markets Fell, Then Rose, On Italian Debt ProspectsMarkets continue to move almost exclusively on EU developments, though this week the clear primary focus was now Italy, not Greece. In particular, benchmark 10 year Italian debt flirted with 7%, the unsustainable debt cost that signaled bailouts for Greece, Portugal, and Ireland. Because there is no cash available to bailout Italy, this presented a truly unsolvable default threat that would bring the collapse markets under a wave of resulting sovereign and bank defaults. Risk assets plunged as Italian debt yields soared, but markets stabilized somewhat Thursday when the latest Italian bond auction went off as well as could be expected, beating already low expectations. Stabilization continued Friday when Italy passed its latest budget law, and rumors of ECB intervention fueled a serious Friday rally in Europe and the US. That was it, all about Italy this week.
After the failure of EU leaders to devise a credible rescue plan that was expected in prior weeks, nothing this week really changed the fundamental reality that the EU is sliding towards a wave of defaults and a global crisis that will likely go global unless someone steps in as lender of last resort. No one is stepping up at this time, and won’t until we’re at the edge of the abyss and necessity again becomes the mother of invention, and suddenly cash is found to at least buy more time. Probably.
A side note to the ongoing crisis was the question of who would replace departing Greek and Italian PMs. Both were ultimately replaced by technocrats seen as more fiscally responsible though we question whether either will be able to make meaningful improvements given the situations they’ve inherited:
-They have debts they can’t pay -They’ve anemic growth that under the best of circumstances would take years to improve.private lenders for immediate cash - News
Lenders to the Vijay Mallya-promoted Kingfisher Airlines will meet tomorrow to discuss if additional funding could be provided to the airline which has run into more financial turbulence. State Bank of India, leader of the consortium of 13 banks,
Because there is no cash available to bailout Italy, this presented a truly unsolvable default threat that would bring the collapse markets under a wave of resulting sovereign and bank defaults. Risk assets plunged as Italian debt yields soared,
Interest charged by private lenders can be as high as 90 percent, inviting comparisons with dodgy investment schemes. "I have to conclude that this business is now a Ponzi game, relying on new money to pay off the old money," said Andy Xie,
Interest charged by private lenders can be as high as 90 percent, inviting comparisons with dodgy investment schemes. "I have to conclude that this business is now a Ponzi game, relying on new money to pay off the old money," said Andy Xie,
Potential investors in the unit, branded D2H, include ICICI Venture, the private equity arm of No. 2 Indian lender ICICI Bank , sources said. Videocon has hired UBS to find an investor, sources said. Videocon and ICICI Venture declined to comment.
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