Last updated at 10:03 PM on 12th November 2011
The economic situation facing Britain is now the worst it has been since the Coalition was formed.
The crisis across the Channel in the eurozone is coming to a head and there's no solution in sight. As one Government figure puts it, 'There's not much time left before an absolute catastrophe.'
To Downing Street, it is clear who the guilty party is: the Germans. 'Angela Merkel is destroying the European Union,' one angry Coalition insider tells me.
The reason the blame is being pinned on the German Chancellor is that she won't let the European Central Bank do what's necessary as the eurozone crisis becomes ever more serious.
The Germans, haunted by the twin fears of Weimar-style inflation and becoming the milch cow of Europe, don't want the Bank to print as much money as is needed.
Until this week, David Cameron and his colleagues had been confident that Merkel would, at some point, relent and let the ECB act. The adage in both Downing Street and the Foreign Office was that she acted late but ultimately she always decided in favour of Europe.
But the events of the past week have shaken these assumptions.
The strategic – and moral – priorities of post-war Germany are peace and unity in Europe, and sound money. As George Osborne and William Hague often privately observe, the eurozone crisis is forcing Germany to choose between them.
It appears that Merkel, who grew up in East Germany and lacks the emotional commitment to the European project of the old West German elite, is opting for the latter.
But her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who started his career as a cabinet minister back in 1984, is part of that West German generation who would instinctively choose Europe. One Coalition source says: 'We can't forecast how Merkel will act any more.'
The problem is that while the rest of the world might be cursing her, Merkel is receiving an adulatory reception at home.
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This would give Cameron the power of veto and an opening to advance Britain's national interests. Meanwhile, Nick Clegg is frustrated by how the Germans keep pushing for a treaty change. He fears, in the words of one ally, 'that it's leading to Europe
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The next so-called quarter day, at the end of December, when many retailers have to pay three months' rent to shop landlords in advance will be a “pressure point,” he said. Conlumino estimates that Britons will spend £200m less in December this year
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